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Monday, August 31, 2009

Preliminary August 2009 SST Anomalies

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Preliminary August 2009 SST Anomalies
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The preliminary August 2009 data has been posted. Based on the schedule listed in the following FAQ page, the data will not be finalized until August 7.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/FAQ.html

So here’s a brief early look at the direction the global and NINO3.4 SST anomaly data are headed. Preliminary August 2009 Global SST anomaly data is showing a very slight rise, +0.009 deg C, since July 2009, while NINO3.4 SST anomalies have shown a minor drop. Preliminary August 2009 NINO3.4 SST anomalies are 0.81 deg C, down 0.05 deg C since July. The graphs follow. But first, here’s the preliminary map. The unusual pattern in the North Pacific is losing more of its definition. Refer to my post “The Unusual SST Anomaly Pattern in the Pacific.”



http://i29.tinypic.com/2s6rate.png
Preliminary August 2009 Global SST Anomaly Map
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http://i29.tinypic.com/2dl20kw.png
Preliminary August 2009 Global SST Anomalies
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http://i31.tinypic.com/1zc0s5g.png
Preliminary August 2009 NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

WEEKLY DATA MAP AND GRAPHS

And for those who are watching the global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies more closely, here are the corresponding weekly map and graphs.
Global SST Anomaly Map for the Week Centered on August 26, 2009
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http://i29.tinypic.com/2ltfq6c.png
Global SST Anomaly Graph for the Week Centered on August 26, 2009
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http://i28.tinypic.com/30hxwsh.png
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly Graph for the Week Centered on August 26, 2009

And here's a link to NOAA's animation of the last 5 weekly SST anomaly maps:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ani-weekly.html

SOURCE

OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

Saturday, August 29, 2009

ENSO Is A Major Component Of Sea Level Rise

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at ENSO Is A Major Component Of Sea Level Rise
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INITIAL NOTES

I don’t like to start a post with notes, but someone is bound to comment on the difference between the linear trend of the data used in this post and the trends of more current depictions of Sea Level. I wanted to clear that up before proceeding.

This post uses sea level data from 1993 to 2003 that is the product of CLS : Collecte Localisation Satellites. It is the sea level dataset presented by the AVISO website:
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/
Specifically:
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_IB_RWT_GIA_Adjust.png
But the CLS Sea Level data in this post stops in 2003.

The CLS presentation is similar to the graph from the University of Colorado site:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/results.php
Specifically:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.jpg

The CLS data used in this post is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer. If and when KNMI updates the CLS sea level data or adds another sea level dataset that runs to present times, I will revise this post. Also, note that the linear trend of the Global Sea Level dataset presented in this post is less than the linear trends of the current versions available from the University of Colorado and AVISO. Specifically, the linear trend of the CLS data from 1993 to 2003 is 2.6mm/year, but from 1993 to 2009, the Sea Level linear trend presented by the University of Colorado in their 2009 Release 3 data is 3.1 to 3.2 mm/year (depending on the application of inverse barometer). However, Figure 1 illustrates an earlier version of the University of Colorado data, their 2004 Release 3. The trend presented in it is 2.8mm/year. The data in this post better reflects the trend of the earlier University of Colorado data.

http://i29.tinypic.com/rm38lc.png
Figure 1

One last note: Keep in mind that the rise in sea level is the product of thermal expansion and of the increase in mass from glacial runoff and the like.
And with that out of the way, here’s the body of the post.

IS THE RISE IN SEA LEVEL REALLY AS MONOTONOUS AS SHOWN?

It’s hard to imagine that the relatively steady rise in Sea Level has the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as one of its major components, but the Sea Level anomaly data available through the KNMI Climate Explorer shows that fact quite well.

Figure 2 shows a curve of Global Sea Surface Height anomalies from January 1993 to December 2003. The graph is typical of many depictions of Sea Level. The period includes a few years before and after the El Nino of 1997/98. Note what appears to be a slight rise and fall caused by that El Nino on top of a constant rise in Sea Level. Appearances are deceiving. That monotonous rise in sea level is not so monotonous. There are major variations taking place that are the results of ENSO events.
http://i27.tinypic.com/t6pliq.png
Figure 2

The Global Sea Level anomaly data in Figure 2 appears in many of the graphs in this post. It is used to highlight the greater variability of other datasets.

The AVISO website linked in the opening notes also provides a map of Sea Level trends from 1993 to present. Refer to Figure 3. The greatest rise in Sea Level occurs over the Western tropical Pacific, but over the Eastern Pacific, Sea Levels have declined. Also note the pattern in the Pacific: Cool colors in the eastern Pacific, up along the West Coast of North America, wrapping around an area of warm colors in the central North Pacific. This pattern is similar to the depictions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
http://i30.tinypic.com/4jrrr6.png
Figure 3

Since the PDO is an aftereffect of ENSO, the pattern implies an ENSO relationship. To confirm this, I segmented the Sea Level data, Figure 4, to capture the areas with the greatest rises. The color-coding of the areas on the map agrees with the colors used in the graphs of the respective sea level anomaly data. I also selected an area in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the area used for the Cold Tongue Index (6S-6N, 180-90W), to serve as a reference of the timing of the ENSO events. And as you’ll see, the Pacific Warm Pool data can also be used in the same capacity since it appears to mirror the Cold Tongue Index data.
http://i27.tinypic.com/mvgemq.png
Figure 4

SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS OF THE AREAS USED AS ENSO REFERENCES

Figure 5 is a comparative graph of Cold Tongue Index (CTI) and global Sea Level anomalies. The variations in Cold Tongue Index sea level dwarf those of the global dataset. The 1994/95, 1997/98, and 2002/03 El Nino events stand out, as does the El Nino conditions that occurred in 1993. Again, the CTI data is being provided for timing purposes.
http://i25.tinypic.com/24oohzo.png
Figure 5

Like the Cold Tongue Index data, the ENSO-induced variations in Sea Level anomalies for the Pacific Warm Pool, Figure 6, are significantly larger than the global data. Note that the Pacific Warm Pool Sea Level anomaly trend (0.63 cm/year) is more than double the global trend (0.26 cm/year).
http://i28.tinypic.com/15yykj5.png
Figure 6

The Pacific Warm Pool Sea Level anomalies appear to mirror the Cold Tongue Index data. Refer to Figure 7. I’ll use the Pacific Warm Pool Sea Level Anomalies as an ENSO reference graph also.
http://i25.tinypic.com/25ialgk.png
Figure 7

IMPORTANT

Keep in mind that a significant El Nino event, such as the 1997/98 El Nino, not only releases heat into the atmosphere, it causes warm waters to be transported via ocean currents from the tropics to the mid-latitudes of the Pacific. Atmospheric circulation patterns, rainfall, cloud cover, surface winds, etc., also change during and after El Nino events. The sea level variations illustrated in the following are products of the changes in atmospheric circulation, or the transport of warm water away from the tropical Pacific, or both.

THE SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS FOR THE AREAS SHOWN WITH ELEVATED TRENDS

The step change in the Central North Pacific Sea Level data is obvious in Figure 8. Note that the linear trend of this dataset is 0.585 cm/year, more than twice that of the Global trend (0.26 cm/year).
http://i29.tinypic.com/wj86xx.png
Figure 8

The sea level data provides an excellent way to illustrate the lag between the North Pacific and ENSO. Figure 9 compares the sea level anomaly data for the Central North Pacific with scaled Pacific Warm Pool data. Note how the rise in the Central North Pacific data (an area that is prevalent in illustrations of the PDO) lags the Pacific Warm Pool data by approximately 6 months.
http://i30.tinypic.com/2a5yzj6.png
Figure 9

The Sea Level anomalies for the Southwest Pacific dataset are shown in Figure 10. Its linear trend (0.51 cm/year) is almost twice that of Global Sea Level, 0.265 cm/year.
http://i31.tinypic.com/mjb4w.png
Figure 10

Figure 11 shows two step changes in the Sea Levels of the Southwest Pacific, with the first the result of the 1994/95 El Nino and the second caused by the 1997/98 El Nino. Note, however, that the Southwest Pacific does not respond to the 2002/03 El Nino with an upward step.
http://i25.tinypic.com/35n7lf7.png
Figure 11

The Sea Level anomalies for the portion of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) that stretches from the east coast of South America to the south-central Indian Ocean are illustrated in Figure 12. The linear trend (0.265 cm/year) is slightly higher than the Global trend of 0.26 cm/year. It must have risen more in recent years, because that trend is not exceptional. Regardless, note the difference in the magnitude of the annual variations before and after 1997/98. The amplitude of the month-to-month variations are much greater after the 1997/98 El Nino than they were before it.
http://i28.tinypic.com/68rev7.png
Figure 12

Smoothing the Atlantic-Indian Ocean ACC Sea Level data with a 13-month running-average filter, Figure 13, reveals the upward step change that occurred as a result of the 1997/98 El Nino.
http://i31.tinypic.com/1znlfeg.png
Figure 13

THE UNUSUAL DATASET

The data for the portion of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) from the southeast portion of the South Indian Ocean to the southwest portion of the Pacific Ocean are illustrated in Figure 14. The data hugs the Antarctic Coast; therefore, much of the area is covered with sea ice for part of the year. It’s the noisiest dataset illustrated in this post. Its linear trend is slightly higher than the global trend. So what’s so unusual about it?
http://i26.tinypic.com/seno6g.png
Figure 14

There are step changes in the sea level anomalies for that section of the ACC, Figure 15, but they are out of synch with ENSO events. I’m sure I could track down some explanation, but for now we’ll leave it as a curiosity, since it really doesn’t have a major impact the global trend.
http://i28.tinypic.com/35k4vn4.png
Figure 15

WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE OCEANS?

To illustrate the impact of ENSO on larger areas of the global oceans, I’ve divided the global sea level data into two segments. Refer to Figure 16 for the coordinates.
http://i28.tinypic.com/far42x.png
Figure 16

Figure 17 is a comparison of those datasets with global sea level anomalies. The curve of the East Pacific and Atlantic Ocean data resembles the Cold Tongue Index curve, and the curve of the Indian Ocean through the Western and Central Pacific resembles the Pacific Warm Pool curve. How close are the resemblances?
http://i29.tinypic.com/71oa6q.png
Figure 17

A note regarding the next two graphs. I do realize I’ve scaled the Cold Tongue Index and Pacific Warm Pool data so they capture most on the rises in the sea level of the other datasets during the 1997/98 El Nino. I am not implying that the contribution to the mass of the oceans caused by glacier runoff and the like stopped during that period. The scaling was provided to illustrate the correlation and the potential impacts of significant El Nino events on sea level.

Figure 18 compares Scaled Sea Level Anomalies for the Cold Tongue Index and the Sea Level Anomalies of the East Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (plus the portions of the Arctic and Southern Oceans captured by the coordinates of 90S-90N, 150W-30E). Note how the East Pacific and Atlantic Ocean data correlates well with the Cold Tongue Index data before the 1997/98 El Nino but diverges from the Cold Tongue Index data after that El Nino. For this area of the global oceans, does this imply that that a significant portion of the thermal expansion-caused rise in sea level from 1993 to late 1997 was caused primarily by the 1997/98 El Nino itself? And that the additional rise in sea level from 1997 to 2003 (beyond the rise caused by the lingering effects of the changes in atmospheric circulation and the transport of warm water from the tropical Pacific to the mid latitudes of the Pacific) was an aftereffect of the El Nino caused by the release of heat into the troposphere? Refer to my post about “RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots...” for illustrations of the step changes in TLT anomalies resulting from significant El Nino events. The El Nino-induced rise in TLT anomalies should add to the sea level rise caused by the mass contribution from glacier melt, etc.
http://i32.tinypic.com/25hfiu8.png
Figure 18

And in Figure 19, I’ve compared Scaled Sea Level Anomalies for the Pacific Warm Pool and the Sea Level Anomalies of the Indian Ocean and the West and Central portions of the Pacific (plus the portions of the Arctic and Southern Oceans captured by the coordinates of 90S-90N, 30E-150W). And again, the greatest divergence between the datasets occurs after the 1997/98 El Nino. The same questions would apply to this area of the global oceans. That is, for this area of the global oceans, do the correlation before 1997 and the divergence after imply that a significant portion of the thermosteric rise in sea level from 1993 to late 1997 was primarily caused by the 1997/98 El Nino? And that the additional rise in sea level from 1997 to 2003 (beyond the rise caused by the lingering effects of the changes in atmospheric circulation and the transport of warm water from the tropical Pacific to the mid latitudes of the Pacific) was an aftereffect of the El Nino caused by the release of heat into the troposphere? And I’ll add the qualifier again. That is, the El Nino-induced rise in TLT anomalies would add to the sea level rise caused by the mass contribution from glacier melt, etc, already taking place.
http://i27.tinypic.com/24vuy5e.png
Figure 19

CLOSING

I originally titled this post “ENSO Is The Primary Driver of Sea Level Anomalies”, but then toyed with a few others before deciding on the present title. Based on the comparisons in this post it appears that ENSO is in fact the primary driver of yearly and multiyear variations in Sea Level anomalies. Significant ENSO events also appear to have major impacts on decadal trends. It’s unfortunate that the dataset doesn’t begin in the early 1980s, because it would be interesting to see the impacts of the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Nino events in sequence. And again, if and when KNMI updates the sea level data on their Climate Explorer website, I will update this post. It would also be interesting to try to determine why the rise in sea level flattened from 2006 to 2007 then rebounded in 2008.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Thanks to Carl Wolk of the website “Climate Change by Erl Happ and Carl Wolk” for his post “Sea Level Data Exposes El Nino’s Secret.” It gave me the idea for this post, which exposed a few secrets of the monotonous rise in the sea level data.

SOURCE

The CLS Sea Level data used in this post is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer website:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere

Monday, August 24, 2009

Mid-August 2009 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Mid-August 2009 SST Anomaly Update
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The OI.v2 SST anomaly map for the Week Centered On August 19, 2009 is showing elevated SST anomalies in the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropical Pacific. The tropical Atlantic is still not showing any areas of exceptionally warm SST anomalies.
http://i29.tinypic.com/154d646.png
SST Anomaly Map

Global SST anomalies are still elevated, and are still bouncing between 0.26 and 0.32 deg C. Tough to tell if they’ll rise or fall in the future weeks and months.
http://i29.tinypic.com/24or3m8.png
Global SST Anomalies

NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on August 19, 2009 are still well into El Nino territory, but they haven’t risen above the peak for this year set a few weeks ago.
http://i32.tinypic.com/a11qm9.png
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

And the Subsurface SST Anomaly Animation (Courtesy of NOAA CPC) shows the anomalies dissipating (or moving out of the area sampled) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but increasing along the thermocline in the central equatorial Pacific.
http://i28.tinypic.com/snhqow.gif
Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Animation

SOURCE
OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

Subsurface Animation is available here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

Friday, August 21, 2009

Borenstien Sea Surface Temperature Article Is Misleading

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Borenstien Sea Surface Temperature Article Is Misleading
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The Seth Borenstein AP article about the recent high sea surface temperature…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jLv3LpI0fw21ULmgkJtinBFrwm7AD9A6OUF06
...is misleading. There is a significant difference between what Seth Borenstein reported and what NOAA stated in the July "State of the Climate".
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?reportglobal&year2009&month7

Borenstein does not clarify that it is a record for the month of July, where NOAA does. NOAA writes, “The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F). This broke the previous July record set in 1998.” Refer to Figure 1, which is a graph of SST for July from 1982 to 2009 (NOAA’s ERSST.v3b version).


http://i28.tinypic.com/2ut3rzp.png
Figure 1

Borenstein readers are told that July 2009 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were the highest since records began, but that is false. Figure 2 illustrates monthly SSTs from November 1981 to July 2009. I’ve added a red horizontal line to show the July 2009 value.
http://i28.tinypic.com/wwho49.png
Figure 2

Whether or not July SSTs represented a record is also dependent on the SST dataset. NOAA’s satellite-based Optimally Interpolated (OI,v2) dataset presents a different picture. That dataset clearly shows that July 1998, Figure 3, had a higher SST.
http://i32.tinypic.com/2ynkzsm.png
Figure 3

And looking at the monthly OI.v2 data since November 1981, Figure 4, there are numerous months with higher SSTs.
http://i31.tinypic.com/2hzslme.png
Figure 4

The Borenstein article also claims that Arctic SST anomalies are as high as 10 deg F (5.5 deg C) above average. Wow!! Really??

I used the SST map-making feature of the NOAA NOMADS system to create the map of high latitude Northern Hemisphere SST anomalies for July 2009. The Contour Interval was set at 1 deg C to help find the claimed excessively high SST anomalies. Alas, Borenstein was right, BUT, as you will note, the ONLY area that reaches the 5 to 6 deg C range is the White Sea (indicated by the arrow) off the Barents Sea.
http://i26.tinypic.com/1yk3v7.png
Figure 5

And to put that in perspective, Figure 6 is the global map. Based on the Kartesh White Sea Biological Station website…
http://www.zin.ru/kartesh/general_en.asp
…the surface area of the White Sea is approximately 90,000 sq km. If the surface area of the Arctic Ocean is 14 million sq km, the White Sea represents less than 0.6% of it. And for those who want to compare it to the surface area of the global oceans, its surface area is 361 million sq km. Too many zeroes after the decimal point to worry about.
http://i26.tinypic.com/vzd36t.png
Figure 6
And the SST anomalies of one miniscule area do not represent the SST anomalies for the Arctic Ocean, as is obvious in Figure 7. Arctic SST anomalies have declined over the past few years.

http://i31.tinypic.com/nv8l8k.png
Figure 7

SST anomaly graphs through July 2009 for the Arctic Ocean and other individual oceans can be found at my July 2009 SST Anomaly Update.

To sum up the Borenstein article, it’s factually incorrect in places, and in others, it raises alarmism to ridiculous levels by dwelling on a meaningless statistic, the July SST anomaly of the White Sea.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Hovmollers Of Pacific Low Latitude SST Anomalies Confirm Step Changes From ENSO

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Hovmollers Of Pacific Low Latitude SST Anomalies Confirm Step Changes From ENSO
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Hovmoller graphs are used in some discussions of climate variability. Many times they’re used when illustrating surface and subsurface processes that take place during ENSO events. And for those who aren’t familiar with them, they can look like a flashback to the pop art of the 1960s.

When used for variables such as SST anomalies of two portions of the Low Latitudes of the Pacific, the Hovmollers can help to show the upward step changes that result from significant El Nino events.

EASTERN PACIFIC LOW LATITUDE SST ANOMALY HOVMOLLER

Figure 1 is a time-latitude plot of Eastern Pacific Low Latitude SST anomalies (30S to 30N, 178W-70W) from January 1982 to July 2009. The x-axis is time (same as a time-series graph), the y-axis is latitude, and SST anomalies are color coded. This Hovmoller plot is available through the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Physical Sciences Division (PSD) website linked later in this post.
http://i27.tinypic.com/2lb96e.png
Figure 1

The significant El Nino events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 stand out in red in the tropical latitudes, and the subsequent La Nina events show up in purples and blues. The lesser (secondary?) El Nino events that formed in groups after the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Nino are also obvious. And for those who aren’t aware of the timing and magnitudes of ENSO events, I’ve grafted a time-series graph of NINO3.4 SST anomalies to the time-latitude plot in Figure 2.
http://i30.tinypic.com/29ws3g9.png
Figure 2

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Note 1: The NINO3.4 SST anomalies in 1993 are not classified as a full-fledged El Nino. They rose into El Nino ranges (above 0.5 deg C) but did not remain there long enough to classify it as an El Nino event.

Note 2: Refer to my post “Similarities of the Multiyear Periods Following Significant El Nino Events Since 1970” for a discussion on the El Nino events that appear to be secondary to the significant ones of 1972/73, 1986/87/88 and 1997/98.

Note 3: The notation “3RM” in the right-side of the Hovmoller title block stands for 3-month running mean.

Note 4: The coordinates used by the NOAA/ESRL/PSD for the East Pacific (178W-70W) includes all of the Gulf of Mexico, part of the Caribbean, and a small portion of the North Atlantic.

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Figure 3 is the Time-Series graph of the SST anomalies for the area of the Eastern Pacific (30S to 30N, 178W-70W) illustrated by the Hovmoller plot in Figure 1. The linear trend line shows that SST anomalies for the Low Latitudes of the Eastern Pacific have not risen over the past 29 years. If fact, there has been a very slight decline.
http://i31.tinypic.com/29ap5dc.png
Figure 3

WESTERN PACIFIC LOW LATITUDE SST ANOMALY HOVMOLLER

A Time-Series graph of the western counterpart of Pacific Low Latitude SST anomalies are shown in Figure 4. A typical description of that dataset might read, The Western Pacific Low Latitude SST anomalies (30S-30N, 120E-180E) show a great deal of annual variability. Over multiyear spans, they rose sharply from 1980 to 1999 and have declined slightly since then.
http://i30.tinypic.com/2v8guwp.png
Figure 4

A linear trend line, Figure 5, gives the dataset the appearance of a noisy constant rise in SST anomalies.
http://i25.tinypic.com/1zovs3k.png
Figure 5

But the Hovmoller of SST anomalies for the Western Pacific Low Latitudes, Figure 6, illustrates something entirely different. It clearly shows that, after the 1997/98 El Nino, SST anomalies in Western Pacific rose in one step. SST anomalies greater that 0.7 deg C (Illustrated in Red) appear very infrequently before 1998. But after 1998, SST anomalies greater that 0.7 deg C are common. The El Nino event of 1986/87/88 also caused an upward step change in Western Pacific Low Latitude SST anomalies, but it’s difficult to see since it was smaller in magnitude. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 also lowered SST anomalies for a few years. This masks the step change in 1988 and emphasizes the rise in 1994 and 1995, which is a rebound from the drop caused by volcanic aerosols.
http://i30.tinypic.com/xpon7k.png
Figure 6

In Figure 7, a NINO3.4 SST anomalies time-series graph has been spliced to the time-latitude plot of the Western Pacific Low Latitude SST anomalies to show the timing of the ENSO events.
http://i26.tinypic.com/2dhtr0n.png
Figure 7

Figure 8 combines the time-latitude plot and time-series graph of SST anomalies for the Low Latitudes of the Western Pacific. To highlight the step changes, I’ve added average SST anomalies for the periods before and after the significant El Nino events of 1986/87/88 and 1997/98. From January 1982 to December 1987, the average SST anomalies were -0.04 deg C; from January 1988 to December 1997, they were 0.05 deg C; and from January 1998 to July 2009 the SST anomalies for the Low Latitudes of the Western Pacific were 0.34 deg C.
http://i31.tinypic.com/24o500y.png
Figure 8

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Note 5: The processes associated with significant ENSO events that caused the step changes illustrated in this post are the same as those shown in:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1”, and
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2

Note 6: Time-latitude plots of global TLT anomalies from RSS were used to illustrate the step changes in TLT anomalies caused by the significant El Nino events of 1986/87/88 and 1997/98. Refer to:
RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots... ...Show Climate Responses That Cannot Be Easily Illustrated With Time-Series Graphs Alone”

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Figure 9 illustrates the Hovmoller graphs as downloaded from the NOAA/ESRL/PSD webpage:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
Specifically, this link:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.pacific.hov.gif

I took the liberty of splitting them for this post.
http://i25.tinypic.com/x45306.png
Figure 9

CLOSING

The SST anomalies of the Low Latitudes of the Eastern Pacific mimic NINO3.4 SST anomalies, and they present a slightly negative trend. But there are upward step changes in the Western Pacific Low Latitude SST anomalies caused by the El Nino events of 1986/87/88 and 1997/98, confirmed by the Hovmoller plot, and the SST anomalies for this area have a substantial positive trend. Combine the two datasets and the result is a curve, Figure 10, that clearly shows the influence of ENSO, but has a positive trend. This is the same effect the East-Indian and West Pacific Oceans, which also exhibit the ENSO-induced step changes, have on global SST anomalies.
http://i31.tinypic.com/a9kz9y.png
Figure 10

In “Evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Global Atmospheric Surface Temperatures”, Trenberth et al (2000) state in their Conclusions, “Although it is possible to use regression to eliminate THE LINEAR PORTION of the global mean temperature signal associated with ENSO, the processes that contribute regionally to the global mean differ considerably, and THE LINEAR APPROACH LIKELY LEAVES AN ENSO RESIDUAL.” [Emphasis added.]
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/2000JD000298.pdf

As illustrated in this post and in those linked, that residual accounts for most if not all of the global TLT and SST warming since the late 1970s. Climate scientists attempt to attribute the residual to anthropogenic causes, when it is clearly a result of significant El Nino events.

Monday, August 10, 2009

July 2009 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at July 2009 SST Anomaly Update
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MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP

The map of Global OI.v2 SST anomalies for July 2009 downloaded from the NOMADS website is shown below.
http://i32.tinypic.com/ilanx5.png
July 2009 SST Anomalies Map (Global SST Anomaly = +0.28 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

Global SST anomalies dropped very slightly, approximately 0.009 deg C, in July. The 0.042 deg C rise in the Northern Hemisphere SST anomalies was countered by a 0.049 deg C decline in the Southern Hemisphere. The equatorial Pacific shows El Nino conditions (Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly = +0.86 deg C and Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly = +0.77 deg C). Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies rose 0.24 deg C in July, while the weekly data shows NINO3.4 SST anomalies have leveled off for the past few weeks.
http://i25.tinypic.com/24g7kwj.png
Global
Monthly Change = -0.009 deg C
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http://i29.tinypic.com/11w3bz7.png
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Monthly Change = +0.242 deg C

AMO

My Usual AMO Blurb: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as calculated by the NOAA ESRL is North Atlantic SST anomalies that have been detrended. Since OI.v2 SST data begins in November 1981, it does not seem appropriate to use a 28-year trend on a cycle that lasts about 60 years, so I am NOT presenting the AMO.

Using North Atlantic SST anomalies as a reference, the AMO is still rising from its low this year in February. Scroll down for the North Atlantic SST anomalies.

NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from November 1981 to July 2009.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SST UPDATES
http://i27.tinypic.com/34euuy0.png
Northern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.042 deg C
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http://i26.tinypic.com/358oqkk.png
Southern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = -0.049 deg C
#####
http://i25.tinypic.com/rtovu1.png
North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = +0.147 deg C
#####
http://i27.tinypic.com/sbpyy0.png
South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = +0.009 deg C
#####
http://i26.tinypic.com/1oozmh.png
North Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
Monthly Change = +0.001 Deg C
#####
http://i25.tinypic.com/f2slck.png
South Pacific (0 to 60S, 145 to 290E, where 290E=70W)
Monthly Change = -0.006 deg C
#####
http://i29.tinypic.com/2r5yfk3.png
Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = -0.080 deg C
#####
http://i31.tinypic.com/nv8l8k.png
Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = +0.026 deg C
#####
http://i29.tinypic.com/9ubsec.png
Southern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = +0.033 deg C

WEEKLY NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES

The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomaly data illustrate OI.v2 data centered on Wednesdays. The latest weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are +0.77 deg C.
http://i29.tinypic.com/2w6vrk3.png
Weekly NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W)

SOURCE

The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite

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Comment Policy, SST Posts, and Notes

Comments that are political in nature or that have nothing to do with the post will be deleted.
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The Smith and Reynolds SST Posts DOES NOT LIST ALL SST POSTS. I stopped using ERSST.v2 data for SST when NOAA deleted it from NOMADS early in 2009.

Please use the search feature in the upper left-hand corner of the page for posts on specific subjects.
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NOTE: I’ve discovered that some of the links to older posts provide blank pages. While it’s possible to access that post by scrolling through the history, that’s time consuming. There’s a quick fix for the problem, so if you run into an absent post, please advise me. Thanks.
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If you use the graphs, please cite or link to the address of the blog post or this website.